Is there a model or predictive tool used to help in this situation?
The Defense Department customarily does not endorse commercially available Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages (DMSMS) predictive applications--one over the other. SD-22 (2016), Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages: A guidebook of Best Practices for Implementing a Robust DMSMS Management Program http://www.acq.osd.mil/se/docs/SD-22-DMSMS.pdf provides a litany of information regarding DMSMS approaches, suggested contract language and predictive tools (legitimacy and application).
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As well, This url: http://www.gidep.org/about/fact_sheets/fact_sheets.pdf may provide useful information on the Government-Industry Data Exchange Program which is a resource for mitigating and providing solutions for DMSMS risks and issues.