When conducting cost estimates of any kind for a program that has no data, the most effective solution would be to look to similar programs.  For example, if the program is a new wheeled vehicle, are there any wheeled vehicle programs that could provide some information to be used as a baseline.

As each program and each supply chain is unique some of the key questions to consider are:  what type of a program is it; where in the lifecycle is the program; what is the supply chain management strategy; what is the acceptable risk level to the program across the supply chain.

Recommend reviewing the Risk, Issue, and Opportunity Management Guide located at the following link:

https://www.acq.osd.mil/se/docs/2017-rio.pdf