The Army, Navy, and Air Force developed processes for measuring program success via metrics.  These were title Probability of Program Success (PoPS) or Program Success Metrics (PSM) depending on the service.  DAU also created a "Windshield Chart" based on similar critiera.  The intent of the “windshield chart” is to portray the probability of success of a program by capturing (EVM like) program metrics over time in single chart for executive consumption (either quantitative or qualitative).  The metrics used are internal and external factors defined by the program office.

• Internal. Traditional program evaluation metrics (addressing cost, performance, schedule and risk), largely within the control of the Program Manager.
• External. “Environmental” metrics that measure conditions critical to program success, but are largely outside the direct control of the Program Manager.
• Level 1. Major “roll-up” categories for the program Internal (Program Requirements, Program Resources, and Program Execution) and External (Fit in the Capability Vision, Advocacy) metrics.
• Level 2. Contributing metrics to a particular level 1 metric.

Probability of Program Success Calculation:

Prob(PS): (100 pts max) = Values((Prog Reqm’t: 20 pts max) + (Prog Resources: 20 pts max) + (Prog. Execution: 20 pts max) + (Fit in Vision: 15 pts max) + (Advocacy: 25 pts max))

Color status should be aligned with requirement documents (ICD, CDD’s).  As an example:

• Green (80 -100) Program on track
• Yellow (60 to <80) – Program is on track for providing acceptable capability with issues that are solvable
• Red (<60, or Existing “Killer Blows” at Level 2) - Program is OFF track

Additional details can be found in our Probability of Program Success Operational Guide (link below):

https://www.dau.edu/cop/pm/_layouts/15/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=/cop/pm/DAU%20Sponsored%20Documents/Program%20Success%20Probability%20Operations%20Guide%209%20Oct%2003.doc&action=default&DefaultItemOpen=1

as well as a slide template/example:

https://www.dau.edu/cop/pm/_layouts/15/WopiFrame.aspx?sourcedoc=/cop/pm/DAU%20Sponsored%20Documents/Program%20Success%20Charts%20Army%20Presentation%2027%20August%202003.ppt&action=default&DefaultItemOpen=1

The Army PSM Guide is located here:

Army Probability of Program Success Operations Guide.pdf (dau.edu)

Additional PoPS/PSM guidance and templates can also be found on this site:

Pages - PM Acquisition Management (dau.edu)