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02/1/2022 10:27 AM is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit dedicated to making uncertainty actionable through tools, standards, applications, and training.

What is Probability Management?

Probability management is the representation of uncertainties as data arrays called SIPs that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability.

Cure the Flaw of Averages

ChanceCalc is a revolutionary Excel add-in that performs the arithmetic of uncertainty using the same keystrokes as those for numerical calculations. This cures the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertain forecasts are replaced by single “average” numbers.

Make Chance-Informed Decisions

Where arithmetic tells you that X+Y=Z, the arithmetic of uncertainty asks what you want Z to be and then estimates your chances. Chance-informed decisions display tradeoffs between a range of goals and the chances of achieving them. This improves collaboration by acknowledging the risk attitudes of diverse stakeholders.

Roll Up Risks and Opportunities Across the Enterprise

The open SIPmath™ Standard communicates uncertainties as actionable data, generated by experts using the SIPmath Modeler Tools, R, Python, or other environments. Just as electrification allows non-experts to use electricity generated by experts to power lightbulbs and appliances, non-experts may use SIPs in Excel or decision dashboards in a process we call Chancification. This ushers in a new approach to enterprise risk management in which risks and opportunities are rolled up like numbers in an accounting system.

2/1/2022 10:27 AMNoShare an Idea
10/7/2020 4:59 PM
Picture Placeholder: PATRICK MORROW
35/30/2017 10:36 AM

​What would make this site more beneficial to you as a RIO practitioner?

MAXI DISLA10/28/2021 11:40 PMNoAsk the Community
12/28/2010 6:05 PM
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  • dau0435100356
112/11/2020 11:26 AM

​I am teaching an introduction to systems engineering class and was wondering whether it is standard to consider risks to society at large (e.g. spreading COVID as a result of lax precautions or contributions to global warming).  This would be in contrast to focusing exclusively on risks the development and/or operations of the system (e.g. unreliablity of parts, a component not meeting TRL).  Any pointers to documentation or guidance would be very helpful.

MAXI DISLA12/11/2020 1:56 PMNoAsk the Community
12/11/2020 11:19 AM
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010/7/2020 5:06 PM

​Risk Management Webinar by Doug Hubbard describing many shortcoming of the most popluar risk management practices used today (including the DOD).

FREE to attend

10/7/2020 5:06 PMNoGeneral
10/7/2020 4:59 PM
Picture Placeholder: BENJAMIN BAULDREE
71/10/2018 3:56 PM

I joined a new USAF organization a few months ago​ and was assigned as risk manager for an upcoming program.  Currently, I'm using an excel file to document all the risks and then hand-jamming it all in to powerpoint for my review boards.  I'm trying to find out if there are any other USAF personnel that are currently using any risk management software.  I've gone through the list of tools provided on this sharepoint site, but unfortunately, a number of their websites are blocked and the others seem to not have been approved for use on DoD computers... I've heard the process to get software approved is extensive.  AFERMS (with ARM) looks promising but it doesn't appear to be free for use on USAF systems, nor does it show up on the approved software list for use on USAF computers (per my IT POC).

fudolimr8/5/2020 6:48 AMNoAsk the Community
11/10/2018 3:51 PM
Picture Placeholder: SAMUEL VELAZQUEZ
112/3/2019 7:17 AM

In past several programs I have worked, a recommendation for a risk, issue or opportunity is brought forward thru the systems engineering team and/or the risk manager, vetted and presented during a risk management board (RMB), for the senior body and the chair of the RMB to adjudicate.  Recently this notion of division of responsibility has come into question and I cannot find any documentation that reference back as to the process initial beginnings.  The argument in question is that to prevent any ethical entanglements (between the recommendation and adjudication, among the parties making them) given that risks/issues/opportunities could have financial and resource implications on any given program.  As reference, I read the DAU/DoD RIO Guide 2017, NAVSEA 5000.8 instruction and the fifth edition PMBOK.  Any thoughts?  Thank you kindly.

JUSTIN PORTO12/4/2019 12:45 PMNoAsk the Community
112/3/2019 7:00 AM
Picture Placeholder: PATRICK MORROW
15/30/2017 10:37 AM

​How do you promote effective RIO management in your own organization?

THOMAS GERRARD8/14/2019 8:58 AMNoAsk the Community
12/28/2010 6:05 PM
Picture Placeholder: ANTHONY NICHOLS
110/17/2017 9:40 AM

​​​​​I am confused by the te​rm "likelihood" as it applies to opportunity in Figure 4-3 of the DoD Risk, Issue, and Opportunity Management Guide (January 2017).  "Likelihood" would make sense using the Project Management Institute's definition of an opportunity as "a risk that would have a positive effect on one or more objectives."  However, the DoD Guide treats opportunity not as an uncertain event, but as a choice for the program manager to incorporate or not.  I noticed that the opportunity matrix that was in Figure 6-4 of the original 2015 guide was removed in the 2017 edition. Is "likelihood" still applicable for opportunities, or was it inadvertently left in the 2017 register example? If it is still applicable, could you please explain how it should be used, possibly with an example or two?  Thank you!

ADAM STROUP1/12/2018 8:24 AMNoAsk the Community
10/17/2017 9:31 AM
08/14/2017 4:56 PM

​Professor Morrow,


I have recently attended the AFIT Risk Managament Course (3 days) and have a lot of relevant artifacts which I will acquire from the school and send to you to post for use by all the RIO Community.  It is the Air Force slant, of course, but there is much value in viewing the same topic (RIO in this case) from different vantage points.




Justin Porto

8/14/2017 4:56 PMNoShare an Idea
7/23/2008 5:26 PM
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