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ProbabilityManagement.org is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit dedicated to making uncertainty actionable through tools, standards, applications, and training.
Probability management is the representation of uncertainties as data arrays called SIPs that obey both the laws of arithmetic and the laws of probability.
ChanceCalc is a revolutionary Excel add-in that performs the arithmetic of uncertainty using the same keystrokes as those for numerical calculations. This cures the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that occur when uncertain forecasts are replaced by single “average” numbers.
Where arithmetic tells you that X+Y=Z, the arithmetic of uncertainty asks what you want Z to be and then estimates your chances. Chance-informed decisions display tradeoffs between a range of goals and the chances of achieving them. This improves collaboration by acknowledging the risk attitudes of diverse stakeholders.
The open SIPmath™ Standard communicates uncertainties as actionable data, generated by experts using the SIPmath Modeler Tools, R, Python, or other environments. Just as electrification allows non-experts to use electricity generated by experts to power lightbulbs and appliances, non-experts may use SIPs in Excel or decision dashboards in a process we call Chancification. This ushers in a new approach to enterprise risk management in which risks and opportunities are rolled up like numbers in an accounting system.
What would make this site more beneficial to you as a RIO practitioner?
I am teaching an introduction to systems engineering class and was wondering whether it is standard to consider risks to society at large (e.g. spreading COVID as a result of lax precautions or contributions to global warming). This would be in contrast to focusing exclusively on risks the development and/or operations of the system (e.g. unreliablity of parts, a component not meeting TRL). Any pointers to documentation or guidance would be very helpful.
Risk Management Webinar by Doug Hubbard describing many shortcoming of the most popluar risk management practices used today (including the DOD).
FREE to attend
I joined a new USAF organization a few months ago and was assigned as risk manager for an upcoming program. Currently, I'm using an excel file to document all the risks and then hand-jamming it all in to powerpoint for my review boards. I'm trying to find out if there are any other USAF personnel that are currently using any risk management software. I've gone through the list of tools provided on this sharepoint site, but unfortunately, a number of their websites are blocked and the others seem to not have been approved for use on DoD computers... I've heard the process to get software approved is extensive. AFERMS (with ARM) looks promising but it doesn't appear to be free for use on USAF systems, nor does it show up on the approved software list for use on USAF computers (per my IT POC).
In past several programs I have worked, a
recommendation for a risk, issue or opportunity is brought forward thru the systems engineering team and/or the risk manager, vetted and presented during a risk
management board (RMB), for the senior
body and the chair of the RMB to adjudicate. Recently this notion of
division of responsibility has come into question and I cannot find any
documentation that reference back as to the process initial beginnings. The
argument in question is that to prevent any ethical entanglements (between the
recommendation and adjudication, among the parties making them) given that risks/issues/opportunities
could have financial and resource implications on any given program. As reference, I read the DAU/DoD RIO Guide
2017, NAVSEA 5000.8 instruction and the fifth edition PMBOK. Any thoughts?
Thank you kindly.
How do you promote effective RIO management in your own organization?
I am confused by the term "likelihood" as it applies to opportunity in Figure 4-3 of the DoD Risk, Issue, and Opportunity Management Guide (January 2017). "Likelihood" would make sense using the Project Management Institute's definition of an opportunity as "a risk that would have a positive effect on one or more objectives." However, the DoD Guide treats opportunity not as an uncertain event, but as a choice for the program manager to incorporate or not. I noticed that the opportunity matrix that was in Figure 6-4 of the original 2015 guide was removed in the 2017 edition. Is "likelihood" still applicable for opportunities, or was it inadvertently left in the 2017 register example? If it is still applicable, could you please explain how it should be used, possibly with an example or two? Thank you!
I have recently attended the AFIT Risk Managament Course (3 days) and have a lot of relevant artifacts which I will acquire from the school and send to you to post for use by all the RIO Community. It is the Air Force slant, of course, but there is much value in viewing the same topic (RIO in this case) from different vantage points.
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