The theme for this edition of Defense Acquisition Research Journal is “Using Past Trends to Predict Future Acquisition Outcomes.” The first article is “Analyzing Cost Growth at Program Stages for DoD Aircraft” by Scott J. Kozlak et al. They analyzed 30 military aircraft programs to determine when cost growth occurred during the acquisition and development cycle, and developed some unique and useful insights that future programs can use for prediction. The next article by Sean Lavelle, “Estimating Firm-Anticipated Defense Acquisition Costs with a Value-Maximizing Framework,” uses a value-maximizing framework to predict how firms will bid under varying levels of risk sharing, allowing the government to estimate future costs more accurately.
Following this is “Informing Policy through Quantification of the Intellectual Property Lock-in Associated with DoD Acquisition,” by Christopher Berardi, Bruce Cameron, and Ed Crawley, which quantitatively analyzes intellectual property lock-in trends in DoD acquisition and their correlation to internal research and development funding. Then, Felix K. Chang, Christopher J. Dente, and
Eric A. Elster, in “The Impact of a Big Data Decision Support Tool on Military Logistics: Medical Analytics Meets the Mission,” describe a combat simulation tool that showed how to reduce the logistical footprint for blood resupply in a military theatre of operations.
This issue has two online-only papers. First, “Beyond Integration Readiness Level (IRL): A Multidimensional Framework to Facilitate the Integration of System of Systems” by Clarence Eder, Thomas A. Mazzuchi, and Shahram Sarkani, looks at expand-ing the current acquisition practice of characterizing systems by their Technology Readiness Level (TRLs) by using the concept of Integration Readiness Level (IRLs) to address growing inte-gration challenges of System-of-Systems acquisition programs. The second, by Elizabeth Mezzacappa and her co-authors, is titled “Effectiveness Testing and Evaluation of Non-lethal Weapons in Crowd Scenarios: Metrics, Measures, and Design of Experiments.” As the name implies, it discusses test and evaluation methods for benchmarking and comparison of non-lethal weapons intended for use in crowd management situations, the results of which can be used for Analysis of Alternatives and trade-space studies. The featured book in this issue’s Defense Acquisition Professional Reading List is Destructive Creation; American Business and the Winning of World War II by Mark R. Wilson, reviewed by Dr. Benjamin Franklin Cooling of the National Defense University.
Finally, there are several changes to the Defense ARJ masthead. Sharp-eyed readers will have noticed over the past year that the Research Advisory Board, which had been established to review and provide direction for the research agenda and publications, had been steadily diminishing in size as many of the Board mem-bers departed their senior-level positions during the last year of the previous administration. At the same time, the responsibilities for providing direction to defense acquisition research has been increasingly borne by the Editorial Board, whose makeup is now two-thirds non-Defense Acquisition University members (including international representation). This Editorial Board arrangement now brings the same type of outside experience and perspectives as did the Research Advisory Board. This has led us to disestablish the Research Advisory Board, with its former functions now subsumed by the Editorial Board.Dr. Mary Redshaw, the last “surviving” member of the Research Advisory Board, has now joined the Editorial Board. Dr. Yvette Rodriguez has also joined, while Dr. Andre Murphy has departed. We thank the former members for their service, and welcome the new ones to continue the strong tradition of advancing the state of knowledge in the defense acquisition community.