ARJ 74

From the Chairman and Executive Editor

Cost Overrun Optimism: Fact or Fiction?

Maj David D. Christensen, USAF

This article examines cost overrun data on 64 completed acquisition contracts. The results reveal excessively optimistic overrun projections throughout the life of the examined contracts despite project type and the military services managing the contracts.

Current Selection Systemic Fiscal Optimism in Defense Planning

Leland G. Jordan

This article analyzes the Department of Defense out-year resource estimates over a 20-year span and six administrations. Econometric analysis points toward optimistic bias versus political factors as a systemic characteristic that impacts the ability to reduce defense cost without loss of capability.

Resilience—A Concept

Col Dennis J. Rensel, USAF (Ret.)

This article treats resilience as a concept similar to the concept of the overall health of a person or system. The author develops a methodology to obtain a holistic view of a system’s resilience and lays out a structure or tier system for a resilience assessment of that system.

Performance Indexing: Assessing the Nonmonetized Returns on Investment in Military Equipment

Ian D. MacLeod and Capt Robert A. Dinwoodie, USMC

The authors use composite index techniques to quantify nonmonetized returns on military invest-ments. This analytical method supports investment and resource allocation decisions through timely, understandable, and accurate results that reflect the institutional priorities.