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CCDC Discrete Projection Model (ADPM)

Updated 3/24/2017

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CCDC Discrete Projection Model (ADPM)
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The purpose of the Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (CCDC) Data and Analysis Center Discrete Projection Model is to provide an estimate of the projected reliability following the implementation of both delayed and non-delayed fixes for discrete (one-shot) systems. The model also provides estimates of the following important reliability growth metrics: 

  • The reliability growth potential;
  • Probability of a new failure mode occurring; and
  • Fraction surfaced of the system's initial probability of failure. 

The benefits associated with ADPM include:

  • Corrective actions can be implemented during the test or can be delayed until the end of test;
  • Reliability can be projected for future milestones;
  • The system's growth potential can be compared to program objectives; and
  • The projection takes into account the contribution of the system's probability of failure due to unobserved modes.
Other Information

A reliability projection is an assessment of reliability that can be anticipated at some future point in the development program. The projection is based on the achievement to date and engineering assessments of future program characteristics. Projection is a particularly valuable analysis tool when a program is experiencing difficulties because it enables investigation of program alternatives.

Processes Supported

Departments Associated

  • Army
  • Navy / Marine Corps
  • Air Force
  • Agencies

Integrated Product Support Elements Addressed

This tool was identified as part of a product support analytical tools database provided solely to assist defense acquisition workforce professionals to identify best value product support solutions which optimize system readiness and life cycle cost. Neither the Department of Defense or the Defense Acquisition University provide any warranty of these tools whatsoever, whether express, implied, or statutory, including, but not limited to, any warranty of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or any warranty that the contents of the item will be error-free. This analytical tools database should under no circumstances be considered as being all-encompassing, and is in no-wise meant to endorse the capabilities or products of any particular individual, company, or organization.

Part of the CCDC Tool Suite

This tool is part of a suite of reliability growth tools offered by the Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (CCDC) Data and Analysis Center. For more information on the other tools available, visit the DAU CCDC Tool Suite page.

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