CCDC Discrete Projection Model (ADPM)

The purpose of the Army Combat Capabilities Development Command (CCDC) Data and Analysis Center Discrete Projection Model is to provide an estimate of the projected reliability following the implementation of both delayed and non-delayed fixes for discrete (one-shot) systems. The model also provides estimates of the following important reliability growth metrics: 

• The reliability growth potential;
  
• Probability of a new failure mode occurring; and
  
• Fraction surfaced of the system's initial probability of failure. 
  

The benefits associated with ADPM include:

• Corrective actions can be implemented during the test or can be delayed until the end of test;
  
• Reliability can be projected for future milestones;
  
• The system's growth potential can be compared to program objectives; and
  
• The projection takes into account the contribution of the system's probability of failure due to unobserved modes.
  

A reliability projection is an assessment of reliability that can be anticipated at some future point in the development program. The projection is based on the achievement to date and engineering assessments of future program characteristics. Projection is a particularly valuable analysis tool when a program is experiencing difficulties because it enables investigation of program alternatives.